Nuclear power is on the horizon

Nuclear power is on the horizon

VietNamNet Bridge – The electricity demand in Vietnam is expected to double in ten years, making electricity shortages many times more serious than nowadays. In this circumstance, nuclear power proves to be a good alternative energy.



The future nuclear power plant in Ninh Thuan
According to Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Huu Hao, Vietnam needs 12-13,000MW this year, while operational power plants just can provide 12,000 MW at maximum.



The electricity shortage will become more serious in 10 or 20 years – if the energy structure does not see basic changes.



It is expected that by 2015, the gap between the power demand and the capacity will be 46.3bil kwh (low scenario), and 102.4bil kwh (high scenario). The figures would be much higher by 2020: 159.8 bil kwh in low scenario and 270.8bil kwh in high scenario



What are the alternatives?



Let’s talk about hydropower. A lot of hydropower plants have been built in Vietnam, but regrettably, the ‘white and clean’ natural resource is not inexhaustible.



After the Son La Hydropower Plant, Vietnam will have no other big capacity hydropower plant (1,000 MW or even 600 MW). From now, Vietnam can only build small plants with the capacities of 350MW and lower. Total electric power generated is expected to reach 4,500-5,000 MW at maximum, or 40-45bil kwh a year.



The figure proves to be far from reaching the demanded 270bil kwh a year by 2020 in the high scenario: thus hydropower cannot be the best choice for the country within the next few decades.



Coal-run thermopower and gas-run power plants? Gas reserves prove to be limited, while oil is forecast to be exhausted in tens of years. As oil has become the precious material for many industries, it would be wasteful to use it to generate electricity. Therefore, thermopower plants would rely on coal.



Meanwhile, big challenges can be envisioned for coal-run power. Vietnam would have to import huge volumes of coal, tens of millions of tonnes every year. This would certainly lead to the heavy pollution of large port areas. And the biggest concerns of burning coal are exhaust fumes and the greenhouse effect, which affect the global climate.



New sources of energy? Windy, solar and biological energies prove to be clean energies, which can be the choices of humankind in the distant future, in the mid or late 21st century.



However, these kinds of energy still show shortcomings in the near future, especially in terms of technologies and production cost. It is estimated that all these kinds of energy can bring 2,800 MW of electricity by 2020, equal to the capacity of two nuclear reactors, and are far from meeting the electricity demand.



Importing energy? Vietnam is importing electricity from neighbouring countries, including Laos, China, Cambodia, and importing coal from Australia. It is estimated by 2015, Vietnam will import 13bil kwh and 35mil tonnes of coal in the high scenario.



By 2020, energy imports will certainly be higher, and may account for 38-53% of total energy needed. If so, a problem will have arisen – national power security. It would be very adventurous to build up a power development strategy that relies on imports.



Saving energy? It is the common solution of all countries in the world. However, this only can help ease the shortage, while it cannot settle the imbalance between supply and demand to the roots.



Nuclear power should become strategic



Nuclear power is a good choice for settling the electricity shortage problems thanks to the advantages in terms of investment and technology. The safe operation of a lot of nuclear power plants in the world in the last 20 years after the Chernobyl catastrophe has restored the public’s confidence in nuclear power.



In the last many years, the state has released decisions showing its determination to develop nuclear power. In 1991-1995, studies on using nuclear power in Vietnam kicked off under the state’s science and technology programme KC-09. After many years of preparation, in 2007, the Prime Minister promulgated a strategy on utilising nuclear energy for peace purposes by 2020.



The government has assigned the Electricity of Vietnam to draw up a project on building two nuclear power plants with the total capacity of 4,000 MW. It is expected that by 2025, the national power grid will have 11,000MW of nuclear power, or 5.5 times more than the capacity of the current Hoa Binh hydropower plant. By that time, nuclear power will account for 20-30% of total electricity output.



The bill on atomic energy is being compiled, which will provide the very important legal framework for developing nuclear power in Vietnam.



As such, Vietnam has 12 years ahead to prepare for putting its first nuclear power plant into operation. Vietnam will be one of the first countries in Southeast Asia to have nuclear power.



Tran Thanh Minh